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Re & Ireland clip where 93% are vaxed & half of the 600 hospitalized COVID patients are vaxed, the "evidence is clear".

If vax had no effect & all else was equal, you'd expect 93% of COVID hospitalizations to be of vaxed people (same % as the population). But hospitalizations are 50% vaxed people. Meaning that while half of 600 (300) hospitalizations represent the 7% unvaxed, an expected 3700 more vaxed COVID hospitalizations are missing.

cc @adam @Johncdvorak

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

Not necessarily, since susceptibility is not uniform.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/342377
nature.com/articles/d41586-021

the Irish as a mixed-race population have a great deal of genetic diversity including a lot of Asiatic genes

@amerika
@adam @Johncdvorak

as I said, all else being equal.

my point being that this is the general relevant math you must do, that 50% hospitalized when most are vax are good results for vaccinations. if some group is 7% of the population but half of all hospitalizations for some disease, you'd say they are much more susceptible to it.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

bad math because not every unvaccinated person ended up in the hospital, nor was every vaccinated person susceptible

if you look at a tiny population that are at risk, then the numbers are going to be skewed

@amerika
@adam @Johncdvorak

Most people (vax and unvax) who get exposed are not very susceptible and do not end up at the hospital. And I'm only focused on Ireland cause that's what NA talked about, asking whether 50% hospitalized of each showed the vax wasn't working.

But the math is good when you're just doing a comparison between vax and unvax hospitalizations in any reasonably sized specific area (population 5m). COVID skeptics make these arguments all the time and you don't complain.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

obviously the vax isn't working because even at herd immunity numbers the virus is still raging wild and free, if we even believe that anymore

but the point is that people who end up in a hospital are a small group, and so it's not entirely surprising that half of them are unvaxed, but it is that half of them are vaxed, since that means the vax doesn't work so good

@amerika @wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak The vaxed outnumber the unvaxed in hospitals in every unadulterated statistic I've seen, especially in UK.

@se7en @wjmaggos @Johncdvorak @adam

if the vax worked, none of them would be in hospitals

we should also include the myocarditis deaths

@amerika @se7en @Johncdvorak @adam

"worked". like saying seatbelts don't work cause some people wearing them still die during accidents. they reduce the problem. so they work.

they also cause other problems, like I'm sure sometimes they trap people in burning cars. factor that in to whether we should use or even mandate them. treat myocarditis deaths similarly.

Robert, please check my math. As vaxed % goes up, so will vaxed % in hospitals. Maybe not obvious, but also not too complicated.

@amerika @adam @Johncdvorak

the vax is not 100% effective. what's necessary for herd immunity changes based on vax effectiveness, starting conditions and what other actions people are taking.

the math I did is based on the NA clip & I did it to refute the confusion Adam expressed, claiming 50% of the hospitalized being vaxed means they don't work at all.

I don't agree that the numbers are too small to tell us anything, but I agree that I'd like to see more. of course IRL data is more suspect.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

after italy revised its numbers, i don't trust any of the official numbers. beyond the usual panic, there's some kind of financial incentive here.

the vax needs to be more effective than half of the people ending up in the hospital with covid.

we really need a genetic assay of the population telling us the prevalence of the 13 loci among the population.

only then are these numbers going to be something we can make sense of.

@amerika
@adam @Johncdvorak

distrust due to financial incentives is capitalism.

not half. a vax 90% effective at reducing hospitalization in a 90% vaxed population where 100k would normally be hospitalized would have 10k unvax, 9k vax. And save 81k from hospitalization.

lastly, you're saying the data will be shit till the people who don't trust the data cause they think there's a grand conspiracy going on, are going to let anyone (much less the government) give them a genetic assay? c'mon.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

we either follow the science, or not

we have the 13 loci

@amerika
@adam @Johncdvorak

the scientific method is our best way of ascertaining what's true. do that. work to avoid that which makes that process fail us.

but as a society, just like we do as individuals, take necessary but careful action based on imperfect information. real life isn't lab conditions, and it also doesn't wait. conservatives have an advantage here cause they generally don't like govt action and can always say wait till we know more. that can have terrible repercussions too.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

maybe. the case still hasn't been made that this is an actual pandemic and not just a nasty flu that kills some people with one of the 13 loci.

in the meantime, a working vaccine means that people stop getting the disease.

this is a therapy that seems to work badly and kill people at the same time.

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