Re & Ireland clip where 93% are vaxed & half of the 600 hospitalized COVID patients are vaxed, the "evidence is clear".

If vax had no effect & all else was equal, you'd expect 93% of COVID hospitalizations to be of vaxed people (same % as the population). But hospitalizations are 50% vaxed people. Meaning that while half of 600 (300) hospitalizations represent the 7% unvaxed, an expected 3700 more vaxed COVID hospitalizations are missing.

cc @adam @Johncdvorak

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

Not necessarily, since susceptibility is not uniform.

the Irish as a mixed-race population have a great deal of genetic diversity including a lot of Asiatic genes

@adam @Johncdvorak

as I said, all else being equal.

my point being that this is the general relevant math you must do, that 50% hospitalized when most are vax are good results for vaccinations. if some group is 7% of the population but half of all hospitalizations for some disease, you'd say they are much more susceptible to it.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

bad math because not every unvaccinated person ended up in the hospital, nor was every vaccinated person susceptible

if you look at a tiny population that are at risk, then the numbers are going to be skewed

@adam @Johncdvorak

Most people (vax and unvax) who get exposed are not very susceptible and do not end up at the hospital. And I'm only focused on Ireland cause that's what NA talked about, asking whether 50% hospitalized of each showed the vax wasn't working.

But the math is good when you're just doing a comparison between vax and unvax hospitalizations in any reasonably sized specific area (population 5m). COVID skeptics make these arguments all the time and you don't complain.

@wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak

obviously the vax isn't working because even at herd immunity numbers the virus is still raging wild and free, if we even believe that anymore

but the point is that people who end up in a hospital are a small group, and so it's not entirely surprising that half of them are unvaxed, but it is that half of them are vaxed, since that means the vax doesn't work so good

@amerika @wjmaggos @adam @Johncdvorak The vaxed outnumber the unvaxed in hospitals in every unadulterated statistic I've seen, especially in UK.

@se7en @wjmaggos @Johncdvorak @adam

if the vax worked, none of them would be in hospitals

we should also include the myocarditis deaths


@amerika @se7en @Johncdvorak @adam

"worked". like saying seatbelts don't work cause some people wearing them still die during accidents. they reduce the problem. so they work.

they also cause other problems, like I'm sure sometimes they trap people in burning cars. factor that in to whether we should use or even mandate them. treat myocarditis deaths similarly.

Robert, please check my math. As vaxed % goes up, so will vaxed % in hospitals. Maybe not obvious, but also not too complicated.

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